My position on Iran having a nuclear weapon is clear, they should never be allowed to have one, at least while this current pro-terror and religious fundamentalist regime is in power. My thoughts on Iran having a peaceful nuclear energy program Iran are also clear. Why would one of the most energy-rich country in the world need a new source of energy? Given the deceptive behavior Iran has had since 1979, I wouldn't bet that their intentions are peaceful. Then there is the host of problems that comes out of a nuclear Iran: existentialist threat to Israel, Sunni's escalating reactions, emboldening of Iran's proxy terror groups (i.e. Hamas, Hezbollah), and I could go on.
I have always been skeptical of the deal the Obama administration has been negotiating with the mullahs. Moreover, the constant posturing of the ayatollahs during the negotiations on key points like immediate sanctions relief, no snap backs and no 24/7 inspections left me extremely worried. So when CNN broke the news this week, my angst level shot up. I was in China and could not access the Internet easily to educate myself on the deal's content. I still haven't looked at all the details, but it seems that important aspects have been negotiated by the West. First, snap back mechanisms are in and should be automatic. 24/7 inspections of key sites, including military sites, seem to be covered as well. It looks like Iran can object to specific visits by the IAEA, but that would give Iran a maximum of 3 weeks, after which sanctions will automatically snap back if an acceptable solution has not been negotiated by Iran and the P5+1. This is good and better than what I expected. However, this deal falls short on 2 points: 10 year timeframe and fast sanction relief.
10-year timeframe:
The US objective of the deal silently went from stopping Iran nuclear program in return for Iran international legitimization, to Iran becoming a nuclear threshold power, while getting legitimized. That's indeed one of the main danger of this deal. In 10 years from now, assuming Iran hasn't broken out, Iran could legitimately become a recognized nuclear military power. 10 years is not a lot of time, it's actually very little history-wise. The counter-argument is that if legitimized, Iran could be a very different country in 10 years, in a very different Middle East. That's true but it's a big gamble.
Fast relief of sanctions:
It is wise to reward good behavior with sanctions relief. However, and I may be mistaken, it looks like Iran will get an enormous amount of frozen oil money just for signing the deal. That is of great concern, especially for Israel, whose mortal enemies, Hamas and Hezbollah, will get a new lifeline to dramatically advance their terror agenda against the Jewish state.
So what to think of all this? And what should be Israel next steps?
Let's face it, this deal is far from being ideal, but we have to think of the alternative. What would happen if we had no deal? First, deal or no deal, Iran will get the bomb. However, no deal means Iran stays a pariah state, Iran most likely continues enriching uranium, and Iran chooses their moment to break out. So on that point, assuming Iran sticks by its covenants, the deal gives us 10 years and a timetable to prepare. At least that should give Israel time to strategically prepare for when the outcome turns ugly. Then there's the lifting of the sanctions and the resulting money in Iran's coffers. As I explain above, that's an issue, a real one. However, there is evidence suggesting that apart from the U.S., the international community appetite for sanctions would have seriously waned down in case of no deal. That's because Iran can buy a lot of contracts and the world wants in.
Bottom line- this is a bad deal but it's an OK "bad deal". Congress should make sure it clarifies the snap back mechanisms and inspection clauses instead of rejecting the deal, as Obama will veto a rejection anyway. Congress should also offer Israel an enhancement to the current security arrangement between the 2 countries and the U.S. President should openly state that the U.S. will consider any heightened Hezbollah or Hamas attack on Israel as an attack on the U.S. itself. As for Israel, the Netanyahu government should bury the hatchet and work with Obama on a joint plan to address the new threats from Hamas and Hezbollah. In my humble opinion, it would be an unwise course of action for Israel security to lobby Congress to stop the deal at this point. The train has unfortunately already left the station and Iran will get the bomb, no matter what.
